July 2024: Toowoomba Property Market Update

It has been yet another strong start to the year for the Toowoomba property market.
The first half of 2024 has again seen prices arching upwards in Toowoomba’s property market, with the citywide median price rising 1.9% in the three months to May 2024 and 9.5% over the previous 12 months, according to CoreLogic’s most recent Regional Market Update.
We explore the latest data and help you understand what it means if you’re looking to buy or sell in our local area.
Price growth continues
This growth takes Toowoomba’s citywide median dwelling price to just short of $600,000, at $595,401. The local median home value has now risen 59.2% over the past five years, making Toowoomba one of the best-performing regional markets around Australia.
A city on the move
A key reason for our continued property price rises has been the ongoing population growth. ABS data shows that in 2023, Australia’s population grew by 651,200 people and at a rate of 2.5%. Queensland’s population growth was even more rapid at 2.6%, with 141,400 new residents choosing to call the Sunshine State home.
Some of these new residents will have chosen to call Toowoomba home, and they will have been joined by people moving from Brisbane and other parts of Queensland. As a result, our local population is estimated to have grown by around 3,500 last year.
Each of these new residents needs somewhere to live, generating increased demand for housing. Unless supply rises to meet it – and over the past few years housing construction has lagged population growth by some distance – we should expect prices to rise.
This could be further fuelled by our booming local economy, which is both encouraging even more people to move here and providing them with more money to spend. Our local economy grew by $1.1 billion between 2020 and 2022, with more than 90,000 new jobs created in FY2022 alone.
Of course, the caveat to the idea that prices will keep rising rapidly, is that higher interest rates and cost of living pressures could impact people’s ability to pay. However, given Toowoomba’s affordability compared to much of South-East Queensland, this is less likely to be an issue here than in centres such as Brisbane and Sydney.
The ‘Sydney effect’ hits Brisbane
Speaking of which, property prices in nearby Brisbane have been booming – so much so that it first overtook Melbourne and then Canberra to become the country’s second most expensive state capital.
The median dwelling price in Brisbane now stands at $843,231, with the median apartment now valued at $615,429 and the median house $937,489.
As Brisbane becomes less affordable, we expect more and more people to see the value in Toowoomba, choosing to live here and commute to the city (or work from home). After all, this is the pattern that has happened in commutable regional areas outside Sydney, where property has been unaffordable for some time. It’s likely we’ll see the sa
Rents continue to climb
In many ways, it is business as usual for Toowoomba’s property market – or at least the usual that we have become accustomed to since the start of the pandemic.
Demand is high, supply is low and all the ingredients for sustained price growth remain in place.
The middle of 2024 remains a good time to sell, and our advice to would-be vendors is that there is no need to wait until the traditional Spring selling season to list. There are buyers in the market now, and you are likely to get significant interest in your home.
For buyers, our advice is to persevere and act decisively. If you’re willing to compromise, you will find a good home and the longer you wait, the more likely it is that prices will rise further.
Looking ahead to the second half of 2024
Rents have also been climbing over the past 12 months, albeit at a slightly lower rate than sales prices. According to CoreLogic, the median rent lifted 6.2% in the year to April 2024, making it 39.1% more expensive than five years ago. This included a 1.9% rise over the three months to April.
As a result, the median citywide rent sits at $519, and investors can expect a yield of 4.5% – slightly down on a year ago.
We believe rents may soon begin to rise even more rapidly. After all, the pace of growth over the six months to April 2024 (4.1%) was far greater than the previous six months (2.1%). More worrying, however, is the lack of available stock. The vacancy rate has fallen to just 0.6% – down from 0.8% in February 2024.
Given the number of people likely to move to Toowoomba – and the fact that many, if not most, will rent before buying, this is likely to put enormous pressure on rents over the coming year.